Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca0e…64f7 other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,616 (-55%) realized −$2,593 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%18W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$330
7 days−$1,289
14 days−$1,889
30 days−$1,889
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$2,402
sports 18% −$42
politics 7% +$17
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -31.7% -38.2% 23% 23% -65.6%
≤30d 65 -35.6% -41.7% 25% 25% -57.7%
≤90d 68 -38.4% -44.3% 24% 24% -61.0%
all 75 -38.9% -44.7% 24% 24% -61.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.7% 24% -61.6%
10% -50.0% 21% -65.3%
15% -54.9% 21% -68.6%
20% -59.3% 20% -71.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$57 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized−$2,593
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses18 / 57
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions15
Markets (closed)75 / 93
History coverage374d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 27¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+44%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+71%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-17%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 44¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $41 +$154 +378%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $15 +$60 +388%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $144 −$144 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 −$8 -16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $103 −$103 -100%
Norway to score first vs. France? Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$34 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $85 −$85 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$33 +324%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$44 +86%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $216 −$216 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0 Jun 23 $26 +$60 +235%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Curaçao (-3.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$21 +52%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $123 −$123 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$33 +54%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $75 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 20¢ $15 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 97¢ $195 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $82 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 73¢ $42 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $134 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 2d
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 A BUY 26¢ $75 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.02 · official $306.69 (match) · 362 history records