Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CA 0xca15…0d5e other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$2,820 (-11%) realized −$2,928 · open +$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%56W / 73L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days+$326
14 days+$337
30 days+$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$587
other 34% −$2,218
crypto 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +56.7% +41.8% 27% 27% +35.0%
≤30d 45 +56.9% +41.9% 31% 31% +34.0%
≤90d 55 +43.1% +29.5% 33% 33% +30.8%
all 129 +20.6% +9.1% 43% 42% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.1% 42% -20.1%
10% -1.4% 38% -27.8%
15% -10.9% 32% -34.7%
20% -19.6% 27% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -21% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$123 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized−$2,928
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses56 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 132
History coverage235d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 81¢ $200 $308 +$108 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $25 −$24 -98%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $3 +$18 +650%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$86 +1585%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -81%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $30 +$64 +216%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$57 +1116%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 −$10 -31%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$12 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$260 +650%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $98 +$66 +67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $11 +$9 +79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$72 +144%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $8 +$7 +88%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $8 +$15 +180%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $19 +$110 +575%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $71 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 16 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $203 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 2h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $25 7h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 0¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 32h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 32h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 32h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 32h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 87¢ $91 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 77¢ $94 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.51 · official $307.55 (match) · 245 history records