Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
CA 0xca16…f878 other 219 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,474 (+15%) realized +$8,988 · open +$486
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%131W / 77L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$4,819now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days+$123
14 days+$213
30 days+$1,520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$1,196
other 18% +$4,341
politics 14% +$1,178
crypto 13% +$459
sports 4% +$746
tech 1% +$285
weather 0% −$8
economics 0% +$239
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +31.5% +19.0% 67% 67% -0.8%
≤30d 33 +9.1% -1.3% 70% 42% -4.5%
≤90d 166 +28.2% +16.0% 61% 45% +3.1%
all 208 +27.7% +15.5% 63% 44% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.5% 44% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here +4.4% 29% -6.9%
15% -5.6% 24% -15.9%
20% -14.9% 19% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +47% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$55 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$4,819
Realized+$8,988
Unrealized+$486
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses131 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions11
Markets (closed)208 / 219
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$289
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $1,886 $2,078 +$192 (+10%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 66¢ $552 $598 +$47 (+8%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 31¢ 39¢ $401 $507 +$107 (+27%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 99¢ $463 $496 +$33 (+7%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $465 $492 +$28 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $110 $225 +$115 (+105%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $208 $212 +$4 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $152 $132 −$20 (-13%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-2%)
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-60%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $561 −$104 -18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $84 +$116 +139%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $551 +$109 +20%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $24 +$26 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +44%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $189 +$25 +13%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $179 +$21 +12%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $506 +$44 +9%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $280 +$19 +7%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $233 +$17 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $626 −$455 -73%
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 04 $68 +$15 +22%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 04 $191 +$21 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $7,373 +$382 +5%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 02 $1,232 $0 -0%
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy Jun 01 $2,033 +$556 +27%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $543 +$96 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $3,947 +$52 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 30 $760 +$39 +5%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,434 +$194 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $4,413 +$89 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $187 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $1,509 +$80 +5%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 21 $9 −$1 -16%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 21 $93 −$10 -10%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 21 $67 −$64 -95%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 20 $80 +$69 +86%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 20 $91 +$257 +282%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 19 $62 −$24 -39%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the nex May 19 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $10 +$58 +611%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 17 $175 +$102 +58%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $484 +$16 +3%
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 15 $83 +$270 +327%
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $35 +$146 +417%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 13 $338 −$125 -37%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $39 −$13 -34%
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? May 11 $260 +$664 +255%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week? May 11 $14 +$2 +14%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 10 $108 +$14 +13%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 10 $358 −$40 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $262 −$262 -100%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 09 $62 +$70 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 8? May 09 $46 +$25 +53%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 06 $46 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $117 +$108 +92%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 05 $402 +$16 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $90 26m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 28m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 35m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 91¢ $263 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $115 45m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 77¢ $154 49m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $23 49m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 79¢ $158 49m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 78¢ $44 49m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 78¢ $2 49m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 91¢ $20 52m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 91¢ $11 53m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 91¢ $45 53m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 91¢ $186 53m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 22¢ $88 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 23¢ $23 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $84 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $75 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $23 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $37 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $105 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $0 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,819.33 · official $4,754.28 · 3500 history records