Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:45:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca19…8438 other 254 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$30
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$37
sports 28% −$23
politics 9% −$3
economics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$5
culture 6% −$6
world 3% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 57 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage134d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $568 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $413 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $165 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $405 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $520 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $154 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $305 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $652 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $68 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $506 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $401 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $315 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $243 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $156 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $141 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $442 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $1,116 −$3 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $735 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $246 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $343 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $482 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $220 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $273 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $855 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $372 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $396 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $157 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $65 12m
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $65 1h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 1h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 5h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 6h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 7h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $65 9h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 11h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $65 15h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 16h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $65 18h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $65 20h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 34h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 35h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $66 37h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $66 39h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 43h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 44h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $66 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $67 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $67 3d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $67 3d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $67 3d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $67 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1329 history records