Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca1a…261e sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+5%) realized +$67 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$265
7 days+$328
14 days+$328
30 days+$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$289
other 19% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +32.8% +20.2% 81% 81% +20.1%
≤30d 21 +32.8% +20.2% 81% 81% +20.1%
≤90d 25 +17.6% +6.4% 72% 72% +1.7%
all 31 +3.1% -6.7% 61% 61% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 61% -2.0%
10% -15.6% 55% -11.4%
15% -23.8% 42% -19.9%
20% -31.2% 32% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$35 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage220d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $71 +$48 +67%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $45 +$24 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$13 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$56 +111%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$42 +82%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $54 +$27 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$56 +109%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $59 +$45 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $53 −$52 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$32 +65%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $56 +$25 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $31 +$74 +242%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $77 +$9 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $55 +$22 +40%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $46 +$9 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $35 +$11 +31%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $29 +$7 +23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $21 +$7 +34%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $111 −$107 -96%
Exact Score: CF Pachuca 1 - 0 Pumas de la UNAM? May 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $36 +$18 +51%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Mallorca vs. Getafe: O/U 1.5 Nov 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $10 $0 -2%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $7 +$4 +59%
Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score Nov 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Rayo Vallecano vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5 Nov 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $54 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $71 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $71 2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $92 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $45 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $40 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $81 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $54 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $59 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $53 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $50 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $80 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $50 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $56 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $54 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $77 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $77 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $55 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $46 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $35 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.38 · official $137.38 (match) · 55 history records