Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca1d…dd3c politics 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 638d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$810per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 91% −$13
politics 6% +$9
sports 1% $0
other 1% −$26
tech 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 2 -50.1% -54.9% 0% 0% -89.2%
all 16 -8.4% -17.1% 6% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 6% -9.9%
10% -25.1% 6% -18.5%
15% -32.3% 6% -26.4%
20% -38.9% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage638d
Avg bet$810
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? May 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 02 $12,191 −$12 -0%
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? Mar 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Dec 06 $16 +$11 +68%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $106 $0 +0%
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? Oct 05 $109 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Oct 03 $197 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? Oct 03 $124 $0 +0%
Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election? Oct 02 $192 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 01 $98 $0 +0%
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? Oct 01 $239 $0 -0%
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? Sep 29 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 29 $122 $0 +0%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? Sep 28 $100 −$1 -1%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ Sep 28 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.48 · official $31.48 (match) · 43 history records