Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca1e…a680 politics 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$1
other 22% $0
tech 14% $0
economics 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage85d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $79 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 30 $79 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $79 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $79 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $79 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $79 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $80 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $81 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $79 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $79 11h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $79 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $79 14d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $79 19d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $16 19d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $63 19d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $79 26d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $79 27d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 30d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 31d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $79 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $79 34d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $79 38d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $79 38d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $79 42d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $79 42d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $79 46d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $80 47d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $81 62d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $25 62d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $56 62d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $81 66d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $81 66d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $81 72d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $81 72d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 78d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 79d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $81 84d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $81 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records