Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:10:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xca1e…5ea4 crypto 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%107W / 3L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$27
weather 12% −$12
world 10% +$13
other 5% +$17
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 17 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 44 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.3%
all 110 -0.1% -9.7% 97% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 1% -9.0%
10% -18.3% 1% -17.7%
15% -26.2% 1% -25.7%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses107 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage146d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $52 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 26 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 24 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 22 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 18 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 18 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 09 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? May 06 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 05 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $91 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Apr 23 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $99 −$9 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $97 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 4? Apr 06 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $93 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 26? Mar 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25? Mar 25 $98 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $53 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $52 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $49 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $51 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $101 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $100 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $98 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 99¢ $97 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $96 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $51 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $45 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $95 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $95 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $95 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $94 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.00 · official $103.00 (match) · 224 history records