Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:22:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CA 0xca1f…9b39 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 717d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,105 (-83%) realized −$1,056 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$8
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$991
other 17% −$122
sports 9% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-63.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -43.9% -49.3% 40% 40% -54.4%
≤90d 5 -43.9% -49.3% 40% 40% -54.4%
all 7 -59.9% -63.8% 29% 29% -91.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.8% 29% -91.4%
10% -67.2% 29% -92.2%
15% -70.4% 14% -93.0%
20% -73.3% 14% -93.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$228 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

717d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$1,056
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage717d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 72¢ 74¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $678 −$678 -100%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Oct 02 $313 −$313 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $37 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $30 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 64¢ $20 15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 50¢ $678 634d
Biden drops out of presidential race? BUY No 42¢ $293 717d
Biden drops out of presidential race? BUY No 43¢ $3 717d
Biden drops out of presidential race? BUY No 43¢ $9 717d
Biden drops out of presidential race? BUY No 42¢ $8 717d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.22 · official $32.58 · 17 history records