Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca20…ae4e other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$1,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$8
economics 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-72.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -69.7% -72.6% 0% 0% -57.5%
≤30d 3 -69.7% -72.6% 0% 0% -57.5%
≤90d 3 -69.7% -72.6% 0% 0% -57.5%
all 3 -69.7% -72.6% 0% 0% -57.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -72.6% 0% -57.5%
10% ← realistic here -75.2% 0% -61.6%
15% -77.6% 0% -65.3%
20% -79.8% 0% -68.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,013
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)3 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $405 $413 +$8 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $226 $227 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 31¢ 33¢ $212 $223 +$11 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $151 $147 −$4 (-3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 39¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 18¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 -9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $3 −$2 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 17m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 17m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 19m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 20m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 22m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 22m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 22m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 23m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 23m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 23m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 23m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 24m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 24m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 24m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 24m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 27m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 29m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 29m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $104 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,012.90 · official $1,013.04 (match) · 66 history records