Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CA 0xca22…2ee7 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized +$62 · open −$90
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,020per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$51,421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$550
7 days+$550
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$303
world 13% +$49
politics 11% −$37
crypto 4% +$18
sports 2% −$348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +77.8% +60.9% 86% 57% +23.1%
≤30d 9 +52.3% +37.8% 78% 56% -6.8%
≤90d 9 +52.3% +37.8% 78% 56% -6.8%
all 9 +52.3% +37.8% 78% 56% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.8% 56% -6.8%
10% +24.6% 56% -15.7%
15% +12.6% 44% -23.9%
20% +1.5% 44% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$341 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$51,421
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions44
Markets (closed)9 / 53
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1,020
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,326 $3,325 −$2 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,323 $3,321 −$2 (-0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,320 $3,318 −$2 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $3,310 $3,285 −$25 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,243 $3,258 +$15 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $2,213 $2,210 −$3 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,204 $2,203 −$1 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,198 $2,194 −$3 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,195 $2,194 −$1 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,193 $2,192 −$1 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,189 $2,188 −$1 (-0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,189 $2,185 −$3 (-0%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 65¢ 62¢ $1,828 $1,730 −$98 (-5%)
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,578 $1,577 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $1,300 $1,317 +$17 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,200 $1,214 +$14 (+1%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,020 $1,036 +$16 (+2%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,000 $990 −$10 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $967 $974 +$8 (+1%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $913 $915 +$2 (+0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $799 $848 +$49 (+6%)
Will Scotland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 100¢ $847 $845 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $779 $784 +$5 (+1%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 77¢ 74¢ $770 $745 −$25 (-3%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 73¢ 74¢ $694 $703 +$10 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $89 +$244 +276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $163 +$170 +104%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $80 +$108 +134%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $97 +$125 +129%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $496 +$4 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $496 +$4 +1%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $397 +$103 +26%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 16 $581 −$578 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 99¢ $364 1h
Will Algeria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $1,578 1h
Will Scotland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $847 1h
Will Australia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 99¢ $500 1h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $328 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 98¢ $118 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2,213 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,205 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,190 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,190 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,194 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,196 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,198 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,320 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,323 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,327 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $53 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $36 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $8 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $120 6h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $80 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $163 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $89 13h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $97 13h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $105 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $300 25h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $586 25h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 73¢ $699 25h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $1,023 25h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $1,002 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51,420.53 · official $51,419.75 (match) · 110 history records