Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca24…23c5 sports 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+7%) realized +$10 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%63W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$8
other 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +7.2% -3.0% 57% 56% -2.3%
≤30d 116 +7.2% -3.0% 54% 53% -4.9%
≤90d 116 +7.2% -3.0% 54% 53% -4.9%
all 116 +7.2% -3.0% 54% 53% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 53% -4.9%
10% -12.3% 53% -14.0%
15% -20.8% 53% -22.3%
20% -28.6% 47% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses63 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+150%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 40¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 18 $1 +$1 +86%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $2 +$3 +129%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $1 +$2 +165%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +67%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $2 +$2 +69%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $1 +$2 +158%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $1 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $1 6h
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) BUY Noskova 53¢ $1 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $2 15h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $2 17h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $2 24h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 37¢ $1 31h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 70¢ $2 31h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 49¢ $1 32h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $1 42h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 50¢ $1 47h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $1 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 51¢ $1 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $2 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 58¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 49¢ $1 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $1 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 51¢ $1 2d
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 55¢ $1 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) BUY PortlandFire 43¢ $1 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $1 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 62¢ $1 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $1 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $1 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $1 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 37¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.57 · official $4.57 (match) · 201 history records