Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca2c…d764 other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$16
politics 19% −$5
sports 4% +$18
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 +1.9% -7.8% 11% 7% -9.5%
all 116 +1.7% -7.9% 11% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 7% -9.5%
10% -16.8% 7% -18.2%
15% -24.8% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×7.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)116 / 120
History coverage97d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $135 $135 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 49¢ $11 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $466 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $82 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $266 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $226 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $455 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $425 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $406 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 09 $215 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $224 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $382 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $642 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $410 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $974 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $233 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 29 $214 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $218 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $419 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $428 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 19 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $219 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 24h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 27h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 3d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $12 5d
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $135 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 12d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 12d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $26 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 17d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 17d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 18d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 19d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 19d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.09 · official $240.09 (match) · 343 history records