Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CA 0xca2d…4bf5 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+8%) realized +$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$6
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -22.9% -30.3% 25% 25% -11.9%
≤30d 10 -4.8% -13.9% 50% 30% -4.0%
≤90d 10 -4.8% -13.9% 50% 30% -4.0%
all 10 -4.8% -13.9% 50% 30% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 30% -4.0%
10% -22.1% 20% -13.2%
15% -29.6% 10% -21.6%
20% -36.5% 10% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$14 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage14d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $143 −$7 -5%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $56 +$14 +26%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $9 −$8 -92%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $23 −$5 -20%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $88 −$13 -15%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $45 +$56 +125%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $272 +$16 +6%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $157 +$33 +21%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $94 −$37 -39%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $90 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 46¢ $136 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ $143 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 70¢ $38 44h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 57¢ $17 44h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $19 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 3¢ $1 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 34¢ $9 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 29¢ $18 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 35¢ $23 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Seattle Mariners 46¢ $32 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Seattle Mariners 47¢ $43 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 53¢ $88 8d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 26¢ $22 10d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 36¢ $17 10d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $22 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $29 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 49¢ $161 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 49¢ $49 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $132 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $19 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $22 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $29 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $17 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 50¢ $11 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $11 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 49¢ $11 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $12 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $20 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 67¢ $31 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $49 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records