Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CA 0xca2e…6397 sports 59 markets active 8h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 75% −$14
politics 19% −$15
other 4% +$11
sports 2% −$34
tech 1% +$5
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +48.4% +34.2% 33% 33% +31.0%
≤30d 15 +3.0% -6.9% 20% 7% -7.6%
≤90d 45 -6.5% -15.4% 24% 16% -11.4%
all 58 -4.9% -14.0% 26% 12% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 12% -9.8%
10% -22.2% 12% -18.4%
15% -29.7% 12% -26.3%
20% -36.6% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage631d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 +$10 +146%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $11 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $51 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $9 +$7 +83%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $47 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 +$4 +50%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 +$6 +104%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Stars vs. Penguins Apr 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $44 $0 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Mar 31 $27 +$11 +40%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers Mar 26 $33 +$26 +79%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 24 $18 +$19 +107%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 05 $83 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $78 +$5 +6%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 04 $13,538 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $7 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 11d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 11d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 21d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 21d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 22d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $18 25d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $11 27d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ $7 27d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $53 30d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $53 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.35 · official $36.35 (match) · 312 history records