Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca2e…f960 sports 184 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$129 (-12%) realized −$135 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%88W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$6
crypto 30% −$90
sports 30% −$37
world 5% −$12
politics 2% +$3
finance 1% +$5
weather 0% +$1
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +75.1% +58.4% 70% 70% -8.5%
≤30d 173 -9.9% -18.4% 46% 43% -27.5%
≤90d 183 -4.9% -14.0% 48% 44% -22.4%
all 183 -4.9% -14.0% 48% 44% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 44% -22.4%
10% -22.2% 39% -29.8%
15% -29.7% 30% -36.6%
20% -36.6% 18% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses88 / 95
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 184
History coverage84d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 +$15 +48%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$8 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$9 +70%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -17%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $63 −$62 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 17 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $5 +$3 +61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $12 −$5 -43%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +37%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $2 $0 -14%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $3 +$14 +442%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +18%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $9 −$9 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $13 +$2 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 01 $6 −$6 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 01 $6 −$6 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 01 $5 +$3 +50%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 01 $10 +$1 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $45 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $13 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 27h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $4 27h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $6 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 86¢ $9 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $49 31h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $6 31h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $8 31h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $9 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.22 · official $26.22 (match) · 351 history records