Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CA 0xca2f…1f50 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$23 (+3%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$420
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +43.2% +29.6% 100% 100% +36.4%
≤30d 3 +43.2% +29.6% 100% 100% +36.4%
≤90d 3 +43.2% +29.6% 100% 100% +36.4%
all 3 +43.2% +29.6% 100% 100% +36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.6% 100% +36.4%
10% +17.2% 100% +23.3%
15% +5.9% 67% +11.4%
20% -4.5% 33% +0.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$140 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage2d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $505 +$282 +56%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $303 +$132 +43%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$6 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $788 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $202 9h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $303 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $434 30h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $303 34h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records