Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:10:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca32…9a74 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$1
politics 36% +$1
other 8% −$9
sports 7% −$1
finance 3% +$16
tech 2% +$1
weather 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 12 -2.3% -11.6% 8% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 5% -8.8%
all 35 -4.9% -14.0% 40% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 11% -9.3%
10% -22.2% 6% -18.0%
15% -29.7% 6% -25.9%
20% -36.6% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage530d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $70 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $52 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -11%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $77 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $31 −$3 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $43 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $157 −$1 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 23 $283 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $71 +$16 +22%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $37 +$1 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $265 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $241 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $235 +$6 +3%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $236 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 25 $11 −$11 -93%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February Feb 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 18 $4 $0 -3%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Feb 18 $13 $0 +3%
Northern Colorado vs. Sacramento State Feb 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Liberty vs. New Mexico State Feb 17 $6 +$3 +47%
UNC Greensboro vs. Furman Feb 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Will egg prices be greater than $5 for January? Feb 13 $3 +$2 +59%
Pistons vs. Bulls Feb 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 19 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $26 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $8 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 32h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $39 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 81¢ $40 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $17 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $8 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $19 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $12 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $40 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $40 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.53 · official $34.53 (match) · 114 history records