Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca32…d1f0 sports 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%26W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$82
14 days−$84
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$26
politics 18% −$60
tech 18% $0
culture 18% +$1
world 5% −$27
sports 3% −$12
crypto 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -11.9% -20.3% 0% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 21 -4.8% -13.8% 10% 5% -13.2%
≤90d 44 +3.1% -6.7% 30% 25% -10.8%
all 76 +1.4% -8.3% 34% 29% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 29% -10.2%
10% -17.1% 28% -18.8%
15% -25.1% 24% -26.7%
20% -32.4% 20% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses26 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage174d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $165 −$2 -1%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $158 −$28 -18%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $120 −$3 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $293 −$8 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $288 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $168 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 −$36 -90%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $90 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $20 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 17 $107 −$8 -7%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $95 $0 -0%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 26 $10 +$10 +93%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $26 +$28 +105%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 22 $11 −$10 -99%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Apr 22 $20 −$2 -11%
Lightning vs. Bruins Apr 22 $8 +$6 +82%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-11? Apr 22 $22 +$27 +124%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) Apr 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Auburn Tigers Apr 10 $8 +$4 +46%
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 05 $8 −$8 -99%
Wild vs. Red Wings Apr 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Nuggets vs. Suns Apr 05 $9 +$4 +52%
Kraken vs. Panthers Apr 05 $10 +$8 +85%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 24 $8 −$8 -100%
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka Mar 24 $8 $0 +2%
Flames vs. Red Wings Mar 24 $8 +$5 +61%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 24 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 24 $16 +$13 +77%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 16 $11 +$3 +28%
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs Mar 16 $7 +$7 +93%
Utah vs. Blue Jackets Mar 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $20 −$4 -18%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Mar 07 $10 +$16 +156%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 79¢ $149 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 79¢ $150 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 21¢ $130 4h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $158 5h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 14h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 14h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 14h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 14h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 37¢ $117 18h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $39 18h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 38¢ $120 18h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 22h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $170 40h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $76 45h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $40 46h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $226 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $248 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $288 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $60 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No $4 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $40 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 403 history records