Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca35…aa25 crypto 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$211 (+1%) realized +$211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate68%50W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -1.1% -10.5% 68% 49% -9.3%
≤30d 73 -1.1% -10.5% 68% 49% -9.3%
≤90d 73 -1.1% -10.5% 68% 49% -9.3%
all 73 -1.1% -10.5% 68% 49% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 49% -9.3%
10% -19.1% 41% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 34% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 26% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$189 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses50 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage6d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $193 −$186 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $208 +$255 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $207 +$184 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $203 +$174 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $207 +$175 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $207 +$223 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $208 +$228 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $204 +$89 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$103 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $116 +$87 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $202 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $205 +$161 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $204 +$69 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $208 +$224 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $208 +$237 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $207 +$181 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $148 +$110 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $204 +$83 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $203 +$55 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $205 +$99 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $204 +$77 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $205 +$117 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $205 +$94 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $204 +$78 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $203 +$50 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $201 +$12 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $193 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $208 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $207 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $203 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $207 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $208 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $208 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $204 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $106 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $207 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $202 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $205 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $116 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $202 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $205 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $204 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $208 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $208 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $203 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $148 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $205 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $204 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records