Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:49:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xca38…0b7d crypto 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,879 (-6%) realized −$9,984 · open +$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%93W / 114L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$726per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,765now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$785
7 days−$11,438
14 days−$11,236
30 days−$11,236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$6,464
other 7% −$1,051
tech 1% −$1,436
sports 1% −$684
culture 0% −$60
world 0% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -54.8% -59.1% 17% 13% -33.6%
≤30d 97 -52.6% -57.1% 20% 14% -32.6%
≤90d 104 -50.9% -55.6% 20% 15% -33.7%
all 207 -26.3% -33.4% 45% 27% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.4% 27% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -39.7% 14% -23.5%
15% -45.6% 6% -30.9%
20% -50.9% 3% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$207 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$1,765
Realized−$9,984
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses93 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)207 / 213
History coverage184d
Avg bet$726
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 55¢ $1,000 $1,104 +$104 (+10%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $300 $317 +$17 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,414 +$518 +22%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 23 $606 +$189 +31%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $101 −$13 -13%
France to win the second half? Jun 23 $503 +$114 +23%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $605 +$178 +29%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $31 +$136 +442%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,187 +$167 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$111 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $507 −$34 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $411 −$411 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $307 −$307 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $403 +$47 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $719 −$108 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $403 +$43 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $285 +$368 +129%
Will Alex Warren perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bruno Mars perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pusha T perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tyler the Creator perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68t Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lady Gaga perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $166 −$32 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $3,302 +$1,126 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2,336 +$167 +7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $308 −$85 -28%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$79 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $237 −$69 -29%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $2,932 50m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 57m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Norway to win the second half? SELL Yes 82¢ $795 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,008 1h
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 75¢ $504 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $88 1h
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $404 1h
France to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $617 2h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 81¢ $503 5h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $783 5h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 31¢ $98 6h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 7h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,354 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $903 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $82 8h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 21h
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 21h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 21h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 21h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $504 21h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,764.80 · official $1,764.83 (match) · 1869 history records