Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca39…6158 crypto 795 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,645 (-6%) realized −$2,645 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate76%603W / 192L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day115.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$700
14 days−$1,738
30 days−$1,729
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$1,828
sports 9% +$50
other 2% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -7.4% -16.2% 71% 27% -18.2%
≤30d 795 -0.8% -10.3% 76% 33% -13.0%
≤90d 795 -0.8% -10.3% 76% 33% -13.0%
all 795 -0.8% -10.3% 76% 33% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 33% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 14% -21.4%
15% -26.7% 6% -29.0%
20% -33.9% 3% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$31 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,645
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses603 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)795 / 795
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day115.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 795 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $68 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $65 −$53 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$5 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $33 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $56 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $48 −$17 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $57 −$22 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $58 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $55 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $81 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $33 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $57 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $98 −$11 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $68 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $62 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$4 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records