Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CA 0xca3a…fe2f other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-11%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$143
crypto 33% +$9
sports 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -19.8% -27.4% 43% 0% -28.5%
≤30d 7 -19.8% -27.4% 43% 0% -28.5%
≤90d 7 -19.8% -27.4% 43% 0% -28.5%
all 7 -19.8% -27.4% 43% 0% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 0% -28.5%
10% -34.3% 0% -35.3%
15% -40.7% 0% -41.6%
20% -46.5% 0% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$38 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$38 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$5 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$8 -8%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $110 +$5 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records