Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca3d…7313 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$188 (-12%) realized −$159 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$82
14 days−$252
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$54
other 44% −$154
world 1% −$15
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -28.2% -35.0% 36% 36% -20.5%
≤30d 52 -29.2% -35.9% 25% 25% -23.6%
≤90d 52 -29.2% -35.9% 25% 25% -23.6%
all 52 -29.2% -35.9% 25% 25% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 25% -23.6%
10% -42.1% 25% -30.9%
15% -47.7% 21% -37.5%
20% -52.8% 15% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$15 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$159
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 39
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)52 / 61
History coverage17d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $60 $42 −$18 (-30%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $25 +$17 +67%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $111 +$25 +23%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$23 +221%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $114 +$62 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $181 −$179 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $111 +$47 +43%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $38 −$35 -91%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $32 −$18 -58%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $69 −$68 -98%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $71 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $55 −$1 -2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $28 +$13 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 +$13 +31%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $62 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $52 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $111 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $33 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Paraguay vs. Austral BUY 14¢ $8 3d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 4d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $49 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $114 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $97 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 98¢ $158 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $84 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $111 6d
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $39 7d
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $31 7d
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 7d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 66¢ $68 7d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.93 · official $86.93 (match) · 109 history records