Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CA 0xca3d…2fd7 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$101
sports 43% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 50% -7.6%
≤30d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 50% -7.6%
≤90d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 50% -7.6%
all 10 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 50% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 50% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 50% -16.4%
15% -26.5% 50% -24.5%
20% -33.7% 50% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$80 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $295 $258 −$38 (-13%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 72¢ $106 $143 +$37 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $217 −$216 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$31 +61%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 +$96 +93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $191 +$105 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $45 −$3 -8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$47 +78%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $121 +$140 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $107 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $299 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $103 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $157 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 24¢ $36 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 82¢ $82 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $103 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $6 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $1 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $1 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $0 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $12 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $1 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $0 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $1 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $0 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $296 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $41 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $191 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 88¢ $261 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 40¢ $121 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $45 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $61 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.50 · official $400.50 (match) · 28 history records