Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CA 0xca3e…41c1 world 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate40%25W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$12
other 37% +$9
sports 16% +$9
economics 2% −$3
politics 1% −$2
weather 1% −$17
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.1% -5.8% 33% 17% -4.9%
≤30d 25 +1.2% -8.4% 48% 4% -8.4%
≤90d 39 +0.4% -9.1% 38% 3% -9.3%
all 62 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 10% -9.3%
10% -16.3% 10% -18.0%
15% -24.4% 6% -25.9%
20% -31.8% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses25 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage526d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 +$15 +33%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 -9%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $83 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $52 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $47 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $93 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $39 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $48 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $102 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $46 −$3 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $72 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $85 +$3 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $21 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $83 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $224 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $247 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $362 −$1 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $13 −$1 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $237 −$2 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $225 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $58 −$3 -5%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $229 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $8 $0 +5%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 96¢ $60 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $45 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $40 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $47 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $43 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.35 · official $54.35 (match) · 251 history records