Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca3f…3342 world 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate35%36W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$3
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
politics 22% −$35
other 18% $0
sports 13% +$23
economics 5% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.4% -8.2% 20% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 27 -3.1% -12.3% 37% 4% -8.7%
≤90d 72 -1.5% -10.9% 32% 1% -9.5%
all 102 +7.6% -2.6% 35% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 9% -9.9%
10% -11.9% 6% -18.5%
15% -20.5% 5% -26.4%
20% -28.3% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses36 / 66
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage541d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $71 +$5 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $3 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $8 −$2 -24%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $31 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $30 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $50 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $5 +$1 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $67 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $102 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $43 −$8 -19%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $3 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $35 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $35 −$2 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $83 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $43 $0 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $11 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $40 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $40 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $36 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $28 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $3 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 40h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $35 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $36 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $36 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 14d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.06 · official $1.00 · 366 history records