Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:51:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CA 0xca42…ce9a crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$67 (-10%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%24W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$22
14 days−$58
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$37
world 11% −$18
economics 5% −$12
politics 3% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -35.1% -41.3% 50% 50% -27.9%
≤30d 34 -5.9% -14.8% 53% 50% -13.1%
≤90d 48 -10.6% -19.1% 50% 44% -21.5%
all 48 -10.6% -19.1% 50% 44% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 44% -21.5%
10% -26.9% 38% -29.0%
15% -33.9% 29% -35.9%
20% -40.4% 17% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage58d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 24 $18 +$10 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $19 +$6 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$3 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$6 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$8 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $14 −$9 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$3 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $24 −$13 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $22 +$8 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $19 +$15 +80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $13 +$6 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 −$4 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $7 +$4 +58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $13 −$6 -45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $6 +$7 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $8 −$1 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $8 −$3 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $5 +$3 +59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $23 +$17 +76%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 27 $30 −$12 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $27 +$10 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $21 +$7 +33%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 25 $51 −$30 -59%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 24 $10 +$13 +130%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $8 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $10 +$6 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 23? May 22 $7 −$2 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 4? May 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 02 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 02 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $18 +$6 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? SELL No 97¢ $28 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY No 85¢ $25 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 98¢ $25 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 59¢ $18 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 78¢ $13 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 79¢ $14 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 62¢ $17 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 81¢ $14 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records