Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca43…b369
crypto · 627 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6,743 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,533 · open −$210
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$745
Realized−$6,533
Unrealized−$210
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses447 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$449
Open positions7
Markets (closed)620 / 627
History coverage148d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 7 History 620 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,105
7 days−$3,993
14 days+$215
30 days−$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Yes 67¢ 65¢ $264 $256 −$8 (-3%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 81¢ 79¢ $163 $158 −$5 (-3%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 46¢ 52¢ $134 $152 +$18 (+14%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $124 $123 −$1 (-1%)
GV CD San José vs. CD Real Tomayapo: O/U 4.5 Under 77¢ 40¢ $77 $40 −$38 (-49%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $177 $0 −$177 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Under 87¢ 0¢ $437 $0 −$437 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
Canada leading at halftime? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $278 $0 −$278 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 71¢ 0¢ $929 $0 −$929 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $831 +$193 +23%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $882 +$324 +37%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $366 +$302 +82%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $223 −$173 -78%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $704 +$339 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $630 −$13 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $572 +$24 +4%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $600 +$26 +4%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $323 −$320 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $121 +$3 +2%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $418 +$257 +62%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $440 +$127 +29%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $698 −$437 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $337 +$178 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $401 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $592 +$211 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $202 −$33 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $130 +$81 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $699 +$107 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$56 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $302 +$45 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $288 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $340 −$330 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$46 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $251 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $280 −$121 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $76 −$16 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $252 +$29 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $159 −$156 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $302 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $201 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $151 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $56 +$9 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% −$5,804
sports 36% −$1,126
other 4% +$177
world 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $7 2m
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $0 2m
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $82 2m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $125 37m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $905 56m
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 67¢ $266 57m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $302 58m
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $45 59m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $383 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $237 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $668 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $131 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $59 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $29 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $19 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 81¢ $570 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 80¢ $261 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,043 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $637 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $453 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $69 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $209 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -6.6% -15.5% 68% 37% -21.4%
≤30d 491 +3.0% -6.8% 75% 46% -9.7%
≤90d 542 +0.7% -8.9% 73% 46% -10.6%
all 620 -1.8% -11.1% 72% 42% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 42% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 28% -21.3%
15% -27.4% 19% -28.9%
20% -34.5% 15% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $744.79 · official $744.79 (match) · 3500 history records