Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca44…b8b1
crypto · 111 markets active 4h ago
3.5score
−$66 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses80 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage96d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 111 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 26 $15 −$11 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 26 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 26 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 26 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 26 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 25 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 25 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 25 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 25 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$20 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 25 $22 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +9.2% -1.2% 75% 71% +5.3%
≤30d 24 +9.2% -1.2% 75% 71% +5.3%
≤90d 63 +8.5% -1.9% 73% 68% -1.9%
all 111 +8.2% -2.1% 72% 65% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 65% -12.8%
10% -11.5% 47% -21.2%
15% -20.1% 27% -28.8%
20% -27.9% 18% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 271 history records