Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca48…827e weather 641 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (177 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,141 (+1%) realized +$1,138 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%630W / 10L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day177.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days−$514
14 days−$303
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (177 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 -2.1% -11.4% 96% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 640 +2.8% -7.0% 98% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 640 +2.8% -7.0% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 640 +2.8% -7.0% 98% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover177.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -24.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -31.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$72 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized+$1,138
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses630 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)640 / 641
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$138
Trades / day177.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 640 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $104 $105 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $104 $105 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ma Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 27? Jun 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 17? Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 17? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on May 1 Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 17? Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $672 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $326 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,104 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2,342 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $466 −$70 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $255 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? Jun 14 $188 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $225 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 5m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $25 13m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $188 13m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $200 13m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 17m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $7 26m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 28m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $25 28m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $15 28m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $438 29m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $104 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $104 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $27 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $104 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1,009 9h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 9h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $397 20h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $153 20h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $42 20h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $81 20h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $105 20h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $0 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.62 · official $380.93 (match) · 3500 history records