Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca4a…a055
crypto · 448 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$348 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$369 · open +$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$457
Realized−$369
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses154 / 248
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions45
Markets (closed)402 / 448
History coverage574d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 45 History 402 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days+$200
14 days+$187
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $60 $78 +$18 (+30%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 30¢ 52¢ $30 $52 +$22 (+75%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $24 +$2 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Yes 53¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Yes 57¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +262%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 +$7 +64%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $301 +$29 +10%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $7 +$13 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -96%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 -35%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$14 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -44%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$8 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$31 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$18 +44%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$21 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$9 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$1 +4%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $73 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -94%
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $37 +$20 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% −$194
economics 14% +$133
other 7% −$58
world 7% −$298
finance 5% +$29
sports 3% +$27
tech 2% +$51
politics 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 1m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06 BUY 1¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 91¢ $301 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $42 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $31 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $32 22h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 23h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -13.8% -22.0% 38% 35% +3.6%
≤30d 146 -15.3% -23.4% 38% 36% +0.0%
≤90d 203 -22.4% -29.8% 36% 33% -9.6%
all 402 -27.8% -34.7% 38% 31% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 31% -10.2%
10% -40.9% 26% -18.8%
15% -46.6% 22% -26.6%
20% -51.9% 16% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456.93 · official $467.85 · 986 history records