Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca4d…5b1d
crypto · 246 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,819 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,820 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized−$1,820
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses114 / 127
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)241 / 246
History coverage68d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 5 History 241 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$269
14 days−$267
30 days−$843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$12 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $136 −$32 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $129 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $99 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $32 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$25 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$1,892
other 2% +$136
sports 1% −$54
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +0.9% -8.7% 55% 53% -25.4%
≤30d 197 -6.4% -15.4% 51% 49% -30.9%
≤90d 241 -10.2% -18.7% 47% 46% -32.7%
all 241 -10.2% -18.7% 47% 46% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 46% -32.7%
10% -26.5% 39% -39.1%
15% -33.6% 29% -45.0%
20% -40.1% 22% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.24 · official $37.24 (match) · 654 history records