Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca4d…4d62 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$11
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$25
crypto 10% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.4% -18.9% 78% 56% -5.1%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 75% 56% -5.4%
≤90d 17 -11.9% -20.3% 71% 53% -6.2%
all 17 -11.9% -20.3% 71% 53% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 53% -6.2%
10% -27.9% 12% -15.2%
15% -34.9% 6% -23.4%
20% -41.3% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage31d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$5 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$5 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 $0 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 $0 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 06 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.76 · official $163.76 (match) · 33 history records