Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xca4e…850c crypto 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$28 (+2%) realized +$35 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%39W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day51.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$77
sports 3% −$7
other 2% −$4
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -9.4% -18.0% 51% 42% -15.7%
≤30d 77 -9.4% -18.0% 51% 42% -15.7%
≤90d 77 -9.4% -18.0% 51% 42% -15.7%
all 77 -9.4% -18.0% 51% 42% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 42% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 36% -23.8%
15% -33.0% 26% -31.1%
20% -39.6% 18% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses39 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)77 / 86
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day51.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 63¢ 50¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Over 30¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 56¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 76¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$21 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $53 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$24 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $82 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$23 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $127 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$20 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $77 +$42 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $77 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +26%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 $0 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -90%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $28 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $27 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $30 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.33 · official $31.35 (match) · 244 history records