Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:13:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca4f…ddc4 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,799 (+15%) realized +$1,794 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2,168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$926
14 days+$766
30 days+$1,425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$701
tech 36% +$940
crypto 13% +$54
sports 10% −$25
world 4% +$19
politics 1% +$32
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 50% +8.1%
≤30d 6 -11.4% -19.8% 50% 50% +10.3%
≤90d 38 -28.2% -35.0% 53% 39% +6.6%
all 38 -28.2% -35.0% 53% 39% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 39% +6.6%
10% -41.2% 24% -3.6%
15% -46.9% 13% -12.9%
20% -52.1% 8% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$28 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.44 per $1 lost it wins $4.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2,168
Realized+$1,794
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions12
Markets (closed)38 / 50
History coverage78d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $300 $313 +$13 (+4%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? No 75¢ 74¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $163 $161 −$2 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? No 81¢ 80¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? No 75¢ 74¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 26 $455 −$10 -2%
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 25 $267 +$188 +70%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 23 $3,929 +$853 +22%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $162 −$160 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,574 +$659 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 05 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 05 $485 +$73 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 05 $405 +$83 +20%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $213 +$122 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 04 $65 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 04 $56 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 04 $135 −$103 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 04 $375 −$3 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $290 +$86 +30%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 23 $1 −$1 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $57 +$10 +18%
LoL: LYON vs Disguised (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifi Apr 23 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 22 $11 +$2 +18%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $201 +$6 +3%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? Apr 20 $87 +$2 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $101 +$29 +28%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 17 $100 +$33 +33%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 17 $110 +$45 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 44¢ $166 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? BUY No 81¢ $151 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $252 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 36h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 75¢ $302 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 75¢ $151 2d
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL No 83¢ $445 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 84¢ $455 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $107 3d
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 58¢ $267 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $4,782 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $162 9d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 17d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,231 17d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $598 19d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,353 19d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $19 23d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 55d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $539 55d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $560 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,168.15 · official $2,168.15 (match) · 111 history records