Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca50…7691 sports 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$293 (-10%) realized −$289 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%34W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$92
14 days−$277
30 days−$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$111
sports 34% −$136
other 14% −$22
politics 14% −$31
tech 0% −$6
culture 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +36.0% +23.0% 69% 62% +6.4%
≤30d 61 -1.9% -11.3% 56% 52% -21.2%
≤90d 65 -7.9% -16.7% 52% 49% -21.5%
all 65 -7.9% -16.7% 52% 49% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 49% -21.5%
10% -24.7% 40% -29.0%
15% -32.0% 26% -35.9%
20% -38.6% 20% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$23 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$516
Realized−$289
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses34 / 31
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions20
Markets (closed)65 / 85
History coverage67d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 80¢ 94¢ $93 $110 +$17 (+18%)
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs GamerLegion 92¢ 94¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 93¢ 99¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+7%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 66¢ $41 $38 −$3 (-8%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $10 $30 +$20 (+202%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 76¢ 92¢ $24 $29 +$5 (+20%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 82¢ 62¢ $35 $27 −$8 (-24%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 46¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-5%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Over 50¢ 40¢ $27 $22 −$5 (-19%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Yes 44¢ 37¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 99¢ 98¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Uzbekistan 39¢ 42¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Yes 57¢ 80¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+39%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 44¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026? Yes 72¢ 45¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-38%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-50%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-80%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 56¢ 4¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 17 $51 +$24 +47%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $92 +$21 +22%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $25 −$5 -20%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $15 −$12 -81%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -86%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 16 $44 −$18 -41%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $5 +$16 +311%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $92 +$25 +28%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $48 +$3 +6%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $13 +$14 +105%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $100 +$12 +12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $8 +$8 +93%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $6 +$2 +26%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $15 +$19 +124%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $14 +$5 +32%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? Jun 10 $13 +$10 +78%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $25 +$5 +18%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $35 +$9 +26%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $34 +$6 +18%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$9 +86%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 09 $19 +$5 +28%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$12 +244%
Lyon: Matteo Martineau vs Mickael Kaouk Jun 09 $35 +$6 +16%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 09 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 09 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $45 +$5 +11%
Tucuman: Juan Sebastian Gomez vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 09 $41 +$9 +21%
Modena: Victoria Bosio vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 09 $14 +$5 +38%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 09 $33 +$11 +34%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 09 $45 +$21 +46%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 08 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $161 +$2 +1%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $5 +$7 +140%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7 −$7 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $5 +$3 +55%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 08 $19 −$19 -99%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $22 −$22 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $120 +$53 +44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $45 +$12 +27%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $29 +$10 +34%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $12 +$14 +119%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 08 $22 −$22 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $21 +$40 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 77¢ $26 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $26 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $35 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 3h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 44¢ $10 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $24 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 39¢ $12 7h
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 92¢ $50 8h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 55¢ $75 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 82¢ $70 8h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 36¢ $51 21h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 50¢ $27 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 77¢ $24 27h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $20 27h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $3 27h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 27h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $43 28h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 54¢ $46 28h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 48¢ $46 28h
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 29h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY No 94¢ $48 5d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $41 5d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 7d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 90¢ $100 7d
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi BUY Leandro Riedi 75¢ $14 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 58¢ $20 7d
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan BUY Marco Trungelliti 63¢ $26 7d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 93¢ $42 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.09 · official $517.63 (match) · 133 history records