Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca53…fde1 other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$261 (+0%) realized +$293 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$548per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 30% −$1
politics 28% −$52
economics 17% −$20
other 10% −$54
sports 8% +$378
world 3% −$10
finance 2% −$2
culture 1% −$4
tech 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 8 -11.5% -20.0% 0% 0% -16.3%
≤90d 22 -8.8% -17.5% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 120 -0.0% -9.5% 11% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 5% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 3% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$635) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$3 · ×13.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$293
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)120 / 123
History coverage170d
Avg bet$548
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 83¢ $48 $80 +$32 (+67%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $48 $16 −$32 (-67%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $50 $0 -1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $352 −$3 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $88 −$5 -5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 21 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30? May 21 $48 −$21 -43%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? May 21 $36 −$8 -23%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May? May 21 $102 −$16 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 16 $5,377 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $777 −$1 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 16 $1,200 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1,200 −$2 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 16 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 16 $200 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $100 $0 -0%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dusan Lajovic vs Matteo Arnaldi Apr 21 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10AM ET Apr 20 $51 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10AM ET Apr 20 $390 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 10AM ET Apr 20 $767 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Apr 05 $64 −$64 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 15 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 15 $393 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 15 $1,210 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $500 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - CCT Group A Mar 15 $1,343 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 12 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $310 −$3 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 09 $2,278 −$7 -0%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Colorado Buffaloes Mar 09 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 09 $185 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 09 $200 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 10PM ET Mar 09 $200 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 09 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10PM ET Mar 09 $300 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $525 −$1 -0%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 08 $84 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 08 $116 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 08 $199 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 08 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 08 $1,348 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $3,970 −$7 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11AM ET Mar 06 $1,349 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $300 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9AM ET Mar 03 $623 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $3,430 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $5 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $50 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $148 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $152 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $83 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $88 27d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? SELL No 24¢ $48 27d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? BUY No 25¢ $50 27d
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30? SELL No 28¢ $27 28d
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $48 28d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? SELL No 14¢ $28 28d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? BUY No 18¢ $36 28d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May? SELL Yes 44¢ $86 28d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May? BUY Yes 51¢ $102 28d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $776 33d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $999 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 33d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 33d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $999 33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $200 33d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $777 33d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $200 33d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 33d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,200 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $100 44d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $100 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.13 · official $106.13 (match) · 411 history records