Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:15:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca54…6646 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$133 (+10%) realized +$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$20
politics 7% +$58
other 6% $0
tech 3% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 2 +29.2% +16.9% 50% 50% +34.0%
all 34 +6.0% -4.1% 38% 6% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 6% -0.9%
10% -13.3% 6% -10.4%
15% -21.6% 6% -19.1%
20% -29.3% 6% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.59 per $1 lost it wins $7.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage327d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hun Apr 20 $100 +$58 +59%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of February? Feb 28 $38 +$94 +245%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 9? Jan 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 16? Dec 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 11? Dec 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 3? Dec 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Dec 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on November 2 Nov 26 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 21? Nov 21 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 01 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 23? Oct 23 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on October 22? Oct 22 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on October 21? Oct 21 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 18 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 17? Oct 17 $58 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Sep 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Sep 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12? Sep 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3800 on September 10? Sep 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 540 and 569 times August 29–September 5? Sep 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Aug 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 450–464 times August 1–August 8? Aug 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Jul 23 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $22 6h
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hun BUY No 63¢ $100 81d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of February? BUY No 29¢ $38 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $39 139d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 21? SELL No 100¢ $39 145d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 21? BUY No 100¢ $39 145d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 157d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 157d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $38 169d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 16? SELL No 100¢ $38 181d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 16? BUY No 100¢ $38 181d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 186d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 186d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 3? BUY No 0¢ $5 194d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 3? BUY No 0¢ $5 194d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 3? BUY No 0¢ $5 194d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 3? BUY No 0¢ $5 194d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $58 199d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on November 2 SELL No 100¢ $58 201d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on November 2 BUY No 100¢ $58 201d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 21? SELL No 100¢ $58 206d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 21? BUY No 100¢ $7 206d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 21? BUY No 100¢ $51 206d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? SELL No 99¢ $58 214d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $58 214d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? BUY No 100¢ $58 230d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 235d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 235d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on October 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 236d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records