Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:24:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca54…79a2 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$4
sports 8% −$1
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +21.5% +9.9% 33% 33% -20.5%
≤30d 3 +21.5% +9.9% 33% 33% -20.5%
≤90d 3 +21.5% +9.9% 33% 33% -20.5%
all 3 +21.5% +9.9% 33% 33% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 33% -20.5%
10% -0.6% 33% -28.1%
15% -10.2% 33% -35.1%
20% -19.0% 33% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage6d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? No 76¢ 78¢ $83 $84 +$2 (+2%)
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 71¢ 77¢ $78 $84 +$6 (+8%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 24¢ 20¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-15%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $17 $16 −$2 (-9%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $39 −$6 -17%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY No 71¢ $79 1h
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 24¢ $27 3d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 4d
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? BUY No 76¢ $84 4d
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 11¢ $32 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $39 5d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.16 · official $217.16 (match) · 12 history records