Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca59…b44f other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$17
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$42
sports 24% −$23
politics 9% −$7
crypto 7% +$1
culture 6% −$7
economics 5% −$10
world 5% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage134d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $473 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $615 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $403 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $399 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $666 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $663 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $266 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $322 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $335 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $657 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $224 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $167 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $601 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $141 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $430 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $136 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $317 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $182 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $96 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $327 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $147 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $141 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $306 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $150 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $140 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $59 47m
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 2h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 6h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 8h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 10h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 12h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 16h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 17h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 22h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $60 24h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 31h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 33h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 34h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 35h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $60 40h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $61 42h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 46h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $61 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $61 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $61 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1335 history records