Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CA 0xca5a…a074 crypto 121 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$101 (+13%) realized +$105 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%40W / 76L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day46.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$79
14 days+$74
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$75
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +30.7% +18.2% 35% 35% +0.8%
≤30d 116 +26.6% +14.6% 34% 34% -0.5%
≤90d 116 +26.6% +14.6% 34% 34% -0.5%
all 116 +26.6% +14.6% 34% 34% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.6% 34% -0.5%
10% ← realistic here +3.6% 34% -10.0%
15% -6.4% 33% -18.7%
20% -15.6% 31% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$105
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses40 / 76
Open positions5
Markets (closed)116 / 121
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day46.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $11 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 35¢ 34¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$64 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$14 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$9 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $79 +$30 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$13 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$12 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$13 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 8m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.30 · official $22.30 · 388 history records