Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CA 0xca5f…7854 crypto 763 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$657 (-1%) realized −$657 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%424W / 339L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day36.6pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$558
7 days−$574
14 days−$296
30 days−$2,381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$2,004
sports 5% −$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -3.0% -12.3% 55% 55% -16.9%
≤30d 480 -6.4% -15.3% 54% 54% -13.9%
≤90d 763 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 56% -11.5%
all 763 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 56% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 56% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 56% -20.0%
15% -29.3% 55% -27.7%
20% -36.3% 51% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$123 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$657
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses424 / 339
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)763 / 763
History coverage47d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day36.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 763 Trades
no open positions (339 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$79 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$140 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$68 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$75 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$67 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$75 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$56 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$143 +137%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$73 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$72 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$44 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$75 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$55 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$52 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$79 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$58 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $77 +$44 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$79 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $77 +$57 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $77 −$75 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 13 $400 −$400 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $77 −$75 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $77 +$58 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$75 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $77 +$54 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $78 +$54 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $77 −$75 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $78 −$76 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $78 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $78 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $77 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $78 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $77 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $77 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $77 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $77 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $78 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $87 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $16 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $77 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2184 history records