Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca68…9c6c other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,424 (-10%) realized −$2,424 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate67%31W / 15L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$527per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days−$45
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$755
finance 11% +$124
world 6% −$923
politics 5% −$1,012
tech 4% +$118
economics 1% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤30d 4 +8.9% -1.5% 50% 50% -4.2%
≤90d 46 -13.3% -21.5% 67% 15% -18.5%
all 46 -13.3% -21.5% 67% 15% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 15% -18.5%
10% -29.0% 7% -26.3%
15% -35.9% 7% -33.4%
20% -42.2% 0% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$808) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$219 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$2,424
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses31 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage84d
Avg bet$527
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $68 +$32 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $105 −$21 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $437 −$56 -13%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $538 +$112 +21%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $852 −$846 -99%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,051 −$1,042 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $399 −$148 -37%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $261 −$189 -73%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $380 −$127 -34%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $537 +$68 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $2,288 +$83 +4%
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 May 01 $67 −$42 -62%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $418 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $461 −$360 -78%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $354 +$44 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $176 +$14 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $1,043 −$312 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 25 $114 +$7 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 25 $97 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $179 +$11 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $189 +$9 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $69 +$30 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $297 −$36 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 24 $252 +$16 +6%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 19 $2,456 +$109 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 19 $990 +$7 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $210 −$60 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $22 +$9 +43%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $808 +$13 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $1,078 +$18 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 15 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $154 +$7 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 15 $53 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 15 $1,113 +$4 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $227 +$30 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 12 $1,340 +$18 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 12 $408 +$4 +1%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $687 −$7 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $549 +$28 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $1,744 +$26 +2%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $1,885 +$54 +3%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $441 +$9 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $83 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $83 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $381 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $40 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $350 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $65 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 11d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 84¢ $76 39d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 86¢ $51 39d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 39d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $150 39d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 39d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 58¢ $39 39d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 62¢ $86 39d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 62¢ $126 39d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 62¢ $126 39d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 62¢ $127 39d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 39d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 39d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 59¢ $96 39d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 59¢ $183 39d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 89¢ $14 39d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 39d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 94¢ $80 39d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 97¢ $87 39d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 97¢ $68 39d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 97¢ $58 39d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 98¢ $58 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.19 · official $176.20 (match) · 528 history records