Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CA
0xca69…c952
sports · 73 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$319 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$324 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$433
Realized+$324
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses17 / 45
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions11
Markets (closed)62 / 73
History coverage36d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 11 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$84
14 days+$203
30 days+$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone Felix Auger-Aliassime 63¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 23¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) Deiveson Figueiredo 20¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Geneva Open: Francisco Comesana vs Jaume Munar Francisco Comesana 40¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm Arthur Rinderknech 0¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur Clement Tabur 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta Thanasi Kokkinakis 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Korea Republic vs Papua New Guinea Korea Republic 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $91 +$39 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $45 +$19 +42%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $82 +$20 +24%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 07 $101 −$4 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Milos Karol Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $20 +$38 +188%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 02 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Kenya win on 2026-06-03? May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-06-03? May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $5 +$21 +414%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $31 +$242 +785%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $5 +$7 +146%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 28 $5 +$13 +250%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $5 +$163 +3173%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 27 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $10 +$13 +126%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Zachary Svajda May 26 $10 +$73 +712%
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy Paul May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic May 20 $10 +$67 +650%
Geneva Open: Francisco Comesana vs Jaume Munar May 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 15 $32 −$30 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% −$90
sports 32% +$372
crypto 13% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 91¢ $91 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 29h
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 70¢ $45 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 4d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 80¢ $82 5d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 60¢ $97 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 23¢ $26 7d
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 8d
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Milos Karol BUY Milos Karol 5¢ $2 8d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 12¢ $10 9d
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -17.6% -25.4% 45% 45% +7.4%
≤30d 53 +38.6% +25.4% 28% 28% +16.1%
≤90d 62 +35.2% +22.3% 27% 27% +12.6%
all 62 +35.2% +22.3% 27% 27% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.3% 27% +12.6%
10% +10.6% 27% +1.8%
15% -0.1% 26% -8.1%
20% -9.9% 23% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.82 · official $432.83 (match) · 96 history records