Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:13:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca6a…8fb9 world 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%27W / 57L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$10
politics 26% +$3
other 17% −$5
sports 3% +$36
finance 2% +$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 22 -1.7% -11.0% 41% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 35 +1.3% -8.3% 40% 3% -9.1%
all 84 +0.2% -9.3% 32% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses27 / 57
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage318d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $86 +$3 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $103 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $65 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $98 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $105 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $198 −$1 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $85 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $142 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $262 −$4 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $290 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $85 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $118 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $180 −$2 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $89 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $244 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $84 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $18 −$6 -33%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $123 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $98 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $100 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $305 −$1 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $114 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $94 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $62 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 22 $26 −$2 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $695 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $611 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $694 +$1 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $23 −$1 -6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $37 +$35 +94%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $237 −$3 -1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $2 $0 -15%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 22 $31 $0 +1%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $17 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $76 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $66 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $16 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $67 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $84 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $65 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $65 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $87 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $89 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $99 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $98 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $46 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $46 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $22 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records