Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:29:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca6c…526b crypto 1510 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-1%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%816W / 694L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day51.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$225
14 days+$86
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$420
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 323 +9.1% -1.3% 71% 71% -2.0%
≤30d 955 -0.7% -10.2% 64% 57% -9.6%
≤90d 1510 -2.1% -11.5% 54% 50% -11.8%
all 1510 -2.1% -11.5% 54% 50% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 50% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 38% -20.2%
15% -27.7% 27% -28.0%
20% -34.8% 16% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses816 / 694
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1510 / 1510
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day51.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1510 Trades
no open positions (369 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.43 · official $16.13 (match) · 3500 history records