Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:54:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca6e…46f2 other 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29,237 (-65%) realized −$29,086 · open −$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%21W / 456L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$575per market
Trades / day36.6pace
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$701now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 95d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$23,217
world 3% −$638
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-78.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 410 -84.0% -85.5% 4% 3% -83.0%
≤30d 410 -84.0% -85.5% 4% 3% -83.0%
≤90d 462 -75.4% -77.8% 5% 4% -81.6%
all 477 -76.0% -78.3% 4% 4% -82.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -78.3% 4% -82.0%
10% -80.4% 4% -83.7%
15% ← realistic here -82.2% 4% -85.3%
20% -84.0% 4% -86.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$1,087) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -76% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
41.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,317 vs −$846 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$701
Realized−$29,086
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses21 / 456
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)477 / 78
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$575
Trades / day36.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $300 $260 −$40 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $286 $234 −$52 (-18%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $135 $105 −$30 (-22%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $120 $90 −$30 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 465 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Jun 27 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jun 27 $354 −$354 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 27 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 27 $5,360 −$5,360 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 27 $776 −$776 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 27 $379 −$379 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 27 $346 −$346 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 27 $3,241 +$19,148 +591%
Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the most streamed song glo Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 27 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 21, 2026? Jun 27 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Jun 27 $688 −$688 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 202 Jun 27 $389 −$389 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 27 $961 −$961 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 27 $1,738 −$1,052 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 27 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 27 $3,721 −$3,402 -91%
Will Israel record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 27 $48 −$97 -204%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 27 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026 Jun 27 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 27 $4,733 −$4,195 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Jun 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 27 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 27 $575 −$575 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 27 $150 −$150 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 27 $847 −$847 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Jun 27 $402 −$628 -156%
Will The Life of a Showgirl by Taylor Swift be the top Spotify album f Jun 27 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Jun 27 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 27 $617 −$615 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 27 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 27 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 27 $582 −$582 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 27 $3,215 −$3,215 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 27 $4,692 −$4,692 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 27 $7,780 +$3,959 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 27 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Jun 27 $1,382 −$1,382 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Jun 27 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Jun 27 $219 −$523 -239%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 27 $975 −$975 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Jun 27 $626 −$626 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 27 $1,848 −$1,848 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Jun 27 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 20m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 25m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 50m
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $122 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 2h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 3h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 3h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $114 4h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $77 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $79 5h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $276 5h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 7h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 7h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $64 7h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 7h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $701.32 · official $701.65 (match) · 3500 history records