Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:24:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca6f…6d20 other 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$97 (-0%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 249L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$32
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$42
sports 24% −$19
politics 8% −$6
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$5
world 3% −$22
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 87 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 189 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.4% -9.9% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)261 / 262
History coverage138d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $182 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $682 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $249 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $586 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $153 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $83 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $508 −$2 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $166 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $240 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $272 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $164 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $204 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $437 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $381 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $173 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $161 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $88 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $302 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $236 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $267 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $737 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $115 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $127 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $248 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $472 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $140 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $3 1h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $23 3h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $26 5h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $39 6h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $39 7h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $39 9h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $39 11h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $39 12h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $39 13h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 15h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 16h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $39 18h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $39 20h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $39 22h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $39 24h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 25h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 27h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $10 28h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $10 29h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $21 30h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $21 32h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $39 34h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $40 36h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 37h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 39h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 40h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 41h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $40 43h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $40 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.61 · official $38.61 (match) · 1511 history records