Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CA 0xca6f…489c sports 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-1%) realized −$66 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate78%97W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$7
14 days+$8
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$76
world 6% −$6
other 2% +$9
politics 2% +$3
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.4% -12.6% 86% 19% -10.2%
≤30d 46 -2.5% -11.8% 85% 17% -11.9%
≤90d 124 -2.0% -11.3% 78% 15% -11.5%
all 124 -2.0% -11.3% 78% 15% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 15% -11.5%
10% -19.8% 8% -20.0%
15% -27.6% 5% -27.7%
20% -34.7% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses97 / 27
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)124 / 132
History coverage50d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Texas Super Kings 91¢ 100¢ $60 $66 +$6 (+10%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 90¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland New Zealand 92¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Australia 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Australia 67¢ 65¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the match end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Malaysia vs Thailand Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $15 +$1 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $260 −$30 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 15 $80 +$3 +4%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $36 +$3 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $204 +$8 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $70 +$4 +6%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $30 +$3 +10%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $20 +$3 +14%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $55 +$1 +2%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $100 +$7 +7%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs Nepal Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Will India win? Jun 08 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will England win? Jun 07 $18 +$5 +29%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 04 $3 $0 +13%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $10 +$2 +21%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $607 −$125 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $170 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +6%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $448 +$9 +2%
Will Kagiso Rabada win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 31 $4 +$1 +17%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $502 +$13 +2%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $58 +$3 +4%
Will New Zealand win? May 29 $23 +$2 +10%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $42 +$4 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 27 $10 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $15 $0 +3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $16 +$1 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $1 $0 +5%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $5 −$3 -64%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $12 $0 +3%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $12 −$3 -28%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $31 +$3 +10%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $29 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $30 +$4 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 98¢ $50 1h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 74¢ $5 2h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas SELL Seattle Orcas 29¢ $2 2h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 59¢ $5 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Australia 98¢ $5 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 92¢ $10 3h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Seattle Orcas 82¢ $5 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 71¢ $1 13h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 67¢ $5 14h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 98¢ $10 14h
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Malaysia vs Thailand BUY Malaysia 97¢ $10 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 96¢ $10 27h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 84¢ $10 27h
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Malaysia vs Thailand BUY Malaysia 93¢ $10 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 37h
Will the match end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 38h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 100¢ $5 38h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 99¢ $20 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 96¢ $100 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 97¢ $100 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 6¢ $3 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 85¢ $20 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 92¢ $15 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 85¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $10 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.67 · official $164.67 (match) · 411 history records